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Systematic Review
17 (
2
); 170-182
doi:
10.25259/JNRP_183_2025

Serum vitamin D and its association with acute ischemic stroke severity: A systematic review

Department of Neurology, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya, Indonesia.

*Corresponding author: Mawaddah Ar Rochmah, Department of Neurology, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. mawaddah_ar@ugm.ac.id

Licence
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-Share Alike 4.0 License, which allows others to remix, transform, and build upon the work non-commercially, as long as the author is credited and the new creations are licensed under the identical terms.

How to cite this article: Arrizqi R, Ulfa A, Oktavian P, Ar Rochmah M. Serum vitamin D and its association with acute ischemic stroke severity: A systematic review. J Neurosci Rural Pract. 2026;17:170-82. doi: 10.25259/JNRP_183_2025

Abstract

Objectives:

Vitamin D deficiency is common in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and has been proposed as a potential prognostic factor. However, evidence regarding its association with stroke severity and outcomes remains inconsistent. This review evaluated the association between serum vitamin D levels and neurological severity, functional outcome, and infarct volume in AIS.

Materials and Methods:

PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for observational studies assessing serum vitamin D in relation to stroke severity measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), functional outcome using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and infarct volume. Meta-analyses of correlation coefficients were performed. Subgroup analyses were conducted according to stroke onset, geographic region, and vitamin D assay method.

Results:

Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 14 (2,242 participants) contributed to the primary meta-analysis. Serum vitamin D levels were moderately and inversely correlated with NIHSS scores at admission (r = −0.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] −0.45 to −0.32; I2 = 65%). Lower vitamin D levels were also associated with worse functional outcomes on the mRS (6 studies, 538 participants; r = −0.43, 95% CI −0.60 to −0.27; I2 = 83%) and with larger infarct volumes on magnetic resonance imaging (4 studies, 710 participants; r = −0.29, 95% CI −0.41 to −0.16; I2 = 73%). Subgroup analyses showed consistent inverse associations across stroke onset, geographic region, and assay methods, although substantial heterogeneity remained.

Conclusion:

Lower serum vitamin D levels are associated with greater neurological severity, poorer functional outcomes, and larger infarct volumes in AIS. However, substantial heterogeneity limits causal inference.

Keywords

Acute ischemic stroke
Infarct volume
Modified Rankin scale
National Institute of Health Stroke Score
Vitamin D

INTRODUCTION

Stroke represents a major cause of global mortality and disability, and approximately 62% of cases being Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS).[1] The clinical outcomes of stroke patients are determined by various prognostic factors, including the severity of neurological deficits at initial presentation, evaluated using the National Institute of Health Stroke Score (NIHSS).[2]

Vitamin D is acquired from food and synthesized in the skin, then converted in the liver into 25−hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D].[3] In addition to its essential role in calcium metabolism and bone health, vitamin D affects the central nervous system, inflammation, and immune response.[3]Vitamin D deficiency is quite prevalent worldwide and has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke.[3] At present, approximately 71% of stroke patients are estimated to be vitamin D deficient, which has been associated with clinical outcomes.[4,5]

Recent studies have increasingly addressed the potential role of vitamin D in AIS, given that low vitamin D levels have been associated with a higher likelihood of stroke and more severe presentations.[6] Vitamin D may have neuroprotective effects by reducing neuronal damage, controlling blood pressure, lowering inflammation, and improving endothelial function.[7] Furthermore, vitamin D deficiency in AIS patients may lead to worse clinical outcomes, higher mortality rates, and prolonged hospitalization.[8]

However, findings from existing studies remain inconsistent. Some studies have found a significant association between reduced vitamin D concentrations and more severe stroke, whereas others have reported no meaningful relationships.[9,10]Therefore, a systematic review is needed to clarify the relationship between vitamin D levels and AIS severity, and to evaluate whether vitamin D can serve as a predictive or prognostic factor. The findings of this review are expected to inform clinical recommendations on the value of vitamin D screening in patients with AIS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This systematic review and meta-analysis were performed in line with the PRISMA 2020 reporting guidelines [Supplementary Table 1], and the protocol was prospectively registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; registration number CRD42025633269).

Supplementary File

Literature searching and screening

We performed a comprehensive search to identify full-text studies examining the relationship between vitamin D levels and AIS severity measured by the NIHSS, using PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science up to 31 January 2025. Search terms comprised relevant keywords and Medical Subject Headings related to vitamin D and stroke [Supplementary Table 2].

Studies published between 2013 and 2025 were eligible for inclusion if they met the predefined criteria. Eligible studies were full-text original research articles that assessed AIS severity using the NIHSS and reported vitamin D measurements, with both assessments performed at hospital admission or within 24 h of admission. AIS diagnoses were confirmed using computed tomography (CT) scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Included studies reported correlation or regression analyses examining the relationship between vitamin D levels and NIHSS scores at admission. Observational study designs, including case–control, cross-sectional, and cohort studies, were considered.

Study selection

Titles and abstracts were first screened against predefined eligibility criteria, after which potentially relevant articles underwent full-text review. The studies were independently assessed by two reviewers (RZA and AMU), with any disagreements were resolved through independent review by a third author (PO).

Primary outcomes included correlation measures, logistic or linear regression coefficients, and significant differences in vitamin D levels and NIHSS scores. Secondary outcomes comprised associations between vitamin D levels and functional outcomes, assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), as well as the infarct volume, measured using the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) on the results of CT-scan and MRI with diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI).

Data extraction and quality assessment

Data extraction was performed using a pre-established and standardized data extraction form, with disagreements resolved by consensus among the three authors. Extracted data included general study characteristics, participant demographics, mean/median vitamin D levels, and NIHSS at admission. Data on correlations between vitamin D levels and stroke severity measured using NIHSS, functional outcomes assessed using mRS, as well as infarct volume, were also collected. The National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool was used to assess the methodological quality of each study. Studies were classified as good, adequate, or poor quality.

Data synthesis and analysis

Meta-analyses were performed using standard quantitative methods. Owing to anticipated clinical and methodological heterogeneity across studies, pooled estimates for each outcome were calculated using a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were subsequently performed according to pre-specified factors: stroke onset, geographic regions, and vitamin D assay methods for primary as well as secondary outcomes.

Statistical heterogeneity was quantified using the I2 statistic, with thresholds of 25%, 50%, and 75% interpreted as low, moderate, and high heterogeneity, respectively. Effect estimates are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and P-value. Potential publication bias was evaluated by visual inspection of funnel plots. All analyses were conducted using R (version 4.4.3).

RESULTS

Study selection

A total of 156 records were identified through three databases, searching and citation tracking. After removal of duplicates, 117 articles remained for titles and abstracts screening. Of these, 93 records were excluded, and 24 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility against predefined criteria. Following full-text review, six studies were excluded, leaving 18 studies eligible for inclusion in the systematic review, of which 14 studies provided sufficient data and were included in the meta-analysis [Figure 1].[5,7,9-24]

Flowchart for selection of studies for inclusion.
Figure 1: Flowchart for selection of studies for inclusion.

Characteristics of included studies

The characteristics of the included studies are summarized in Table 1. The review included observational studies (cross-sectional, case–control, and cohort designs) that evaluated the association between serum vitamin D levels and stroke severity measured by the NIHSS at admission or within 24 h of hospital presentation.

Table 1: Characteristic and data extraction results of each study.
S. No. References Title Country Study design Participants n); (female %) Age (year); (mean/median)
1. Kim et al., 2023[7] Association between Vitamin D and short−term functional outcomes in acute ischemic stroke South Korea Retrospective 192 (40.60) 74.0 (64.0–83.0)
2. Li et al., 2018[9] Association of serum 25(OH) D levels with infarct volumes and stroke severity in acute ischemic stroke China Prospective 235 (53.20) 64 (56−75)
3. Bayat et al., 2023[10] Increased serum levels of IL−1β after ischemic stroke are inversely associated with Vitamin D Iran Case-control 204 (AIS=102 [50], control=102 [50]) AIS=67.6±1.33, control=67.6±1.33
4. Wang et al., 2014[11] Prognostic value of serum 25−Hydroxyvitamin D in patients with stroke China Cross-sectional 326 (39.60) 65 (57−75)
5. Kamal et al., 2023[12] Serum Vitamin D level as a risk factor and prognostic marker for acute ischemic stroke: A case−control study at a tertiary care center in northern India India Prospective observational Case-control 150 (AIS=75 [40], control=75 [45.33]) NR
6. Miao et al., 2021[13] Risk factors of vitamin d deficiency in Chinese ischemic stroke patients: A cross−sectional study China Retrospective 982 (36) 66.2 (11.74)
7. Qiu et al., 2017[14] Vitamin D status and the risk of recurrent stroke and mortality in ischemic stroke patients data from a 24−month follow−up study in China China Cohort prospective 216 (38.40) 65 (55−76)
8. Masoud et al., 2023[15] Baseline vitamin D levels and functional outcome in thrombolyzed stroke patients Egypt Prospective 66 (53) 60.6±10.2
9. Zhang et al., 2018[16] Serum 25−hydroxyvitamin D deficiency predicts poor outcome among acute ischemic stroke patients without hypertension China Cohort 399 (36.10) 64.9±13.7
10. Flifel et al., 2020[24] Impact of Vitamin D on acute ischemic stroke prognosis Egypt Prospective cross-sectional study 59 (50.80) >30 ng/mL 43−94±67.5; <30 ng/ml 53−90±66.9
11. Tu et al., 2014[17] Serum 25−hydroxyvitamin D predicts the short−term outcomes of Chinese patients with acute ischemic stroke China Prospective cohort study 220 (39.10) 65 (56−76)
12. Safari et al., 2022[18] The association between inflammatory biomarkers and Vitamin D level with the evolution and severity of stroke Iran Prospective cross-sectional study 92 (AIS=46 [50], control=46 [50]) AIS=64.22 (59.88−68.30), control=66.72 (63.78−69.65)
13. Markišic et al., 2017[19] The impact of homocysteine, vitamin B12, and Vitamin D levels on functional outcome after first−ever ischemic stroke Monte− negro Noninterventional prospective clinical study 50 (56) 71.96±11.39 (45−90)
14. Alharbi et al., 2022[20] Vitamin D serum level predicts stroke clinical severity, functional independence, and disability—A retrospective cohort study Saudi Arabia Retrospective cohort study 294 (50.70) 68.2±13.4
15. Fahmy et al., 2019[5] Vitamin D status in acute ischemic stroke: relation to initial severity and short− term outcome Egypt Case-control 96 (AIS=48 [33.30], control=48 [33.30]) AIS=56.81±13.76 (20−80), control=54.77±12.47 (31−74)
16. Aggarwal et al. 2022[21] Vitamin D as a predictor of severity and prognosis of acute ischemic stroke India Prospective 200 (28) 59.2±10.8
17. Wei et al., 2018[22] Vitamin D deficiency in relation to the poor functional outcomes in nondiabetic patients with ischemic stroke China Prospective 266 (45.50) 59 (54–65)
18. Simon et al., 2024[23] Impact of Vitamin D deficiency on ischemic stroke severity: Insights from a prospective study India Prospective observational study 86 (40.70) NR

AIS: Acute ischemic stroke, NR: Not reported, IL−1β: Interleukin-1 beta

Methodological quality was assessed using the National Institutes of Health Quality Assessment Tool for observational cohort, cross-sectional, and case–control studies. The results of this assessment are presented in Supplementary Tables 3 and 4. Overall, the included studies were judged to be generally good.

Association between serum vitamin D levels and NIHSS at admission

Among the 18 included studies, 14 reported an inverse association between serum vitamin D levels and stroke severity measured by the NIHSS at hospital admission [Tables 2 and 3]. Fourteen comparisons involving 2,242 participants contributed to the quantitative synthesis.

Table 2: Data extraction of level Vitamin D and NIHSS at admission
S. No. References Level of serum Vitamin D at admission (ng/mL); (Mean/median) NIHSS at admission (Mean/median) Vitamin D assay method Admission timing
1. Kim et al., 2023[7] 17.1 (12.2−24.2) NR CLIA 7 days
2. Li et al., 20187[9] 19.1 (11.9−25.6) NR ELISA 0–24 h
3. Bayat et al., 2023[10] AIS=24.3±1.4, control=29.9±1.5 NR CLIA 0–24 h
4. Wang et al., 2014[11] 14.3 (10.1–21.5) 8 (5−12) CLIA 0–24 h
5. Kamal et al., 2023[12] AIS = 19.79±10.79; control=28.57±42.84 20.73±9.444 CLIA Not specified
6. Miao et al., 2021[13] 25 (9.2) 4.14 (4.18) NR NR
7. Qiu et al., 2017[14] 14.2 (10.3−18.9) 8.0 (4−12) NR Within 24 h
8. Masoud et al., 2023[15] NR 12.0±4.7 ELISA Not specified
9. Zhang et al., 2018[16] NR <20=3 (2−7); ≥20=3 (1−5) CBPA Within 24 h
10. Flifel et al., 2020[24] >30=37.95±7.86; <30=16.77±7.64 >30=3.93±2.13; <30=11.51±10.45 NR 24–48 h
11. Tu et al., 2014[17] 14.2 (10.2−18.9) 8 (4−12) CLIA 0–24 h
12. Safari et al., 2022[18] AIS=22.40 (18.83−25.86); control=32.07 (20.13−39.12) 12.97 (10.65−15.35) ELISA >24 h
13. Markišic et al., 2017[19] 30.2±9.0 14±7 NR Not specified
14. Alharbi et al., 2022[20] NR 7 (4,12) CLIA Within 7 days
15. Fahmy et al., 2019[5] AIS=21.260±12.5, control=28.72±11.284 11.375±4.836 ELISA Not specified
16. Aggarwal et al. 2022[21] 19.5±9.4 19.0 (11.5, 23.0); 15.0 (9.0, 20.0); 7.5 (5.0, 15.5); 6.0 (4.0, 14.0) CLIA Within 7 days
17. Wei et al., 2018[22] 18 (13–24) 7 (3–14) CLIA 0–48 h
18. Simon et al., 2024[23] NR NR CLIA <24 h

AIS: Acute ischemic stroke, NIHSS: National institutes of health stroke scale, mRS: Modified rankin scale, MRI: Magnetic resonance imaging, DWI: Diffusion weighted imaging, CLIA: Chemiluminescent immunoassay, ELISA: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, CBPA: Competitive binding protein assay, OR: Odds ratio, CI: Confidence interval, NR: Not reported, AIS: Acute ischemic stroke

The random-effects meta-analysis showed a moderate inverse correlation between serum vitamin D levels and NIHSS scores (r=−0.39, 95% CI −0.45 to −0.32; I2 = 65%; p < 0.0001), indicating that lower vitamin D concentrations were associated with greater neurological severity at presentation [Figure 2]. Given the presence of substantial between-study heterogeneity, pre-specified subgroup analyses were undertaken according to stroke onset, geographic regions, and vitamin D assay methods.

Forest plots of correlations between serum vitamin D levels and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at admission. (a) Subgrouped by stroke onset timing (early <24 h, delayed >24 h or mixed, and unspecified). (b) Subgrouped by geographic region (East Asia vs. other regions). (c) Subgrouped by vitamin D assay method (Chemiluminescent immunoassay-based, Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based, and unspecified), CI: Confidence interval, COR: Correlation coefficient.
Figure 2: Forest plots of correlations between serum vitamin D levels and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at admission. (a) Subgrouped by stroke onset timing (early <24 h, delayed >24 h or mixed, and unspecified). (b) Subgrouped by geographic region (East Asia vs. other regions). (c) Subgrouped by vitamin D assay method (Chemiluminescent immunoassay-based, Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based, and unspecified), CI: Confidence interval, COR: Correlation coefficient.

Subgroup analysis by stroke onset

Subgroup analyses by stroke onset, timing of NIHSS assessment relative to stroke onset, were categorized into delayed (>24 h), early (<24 h), and unspecified [Figure 2a]. The inverse association between serum vitamin D levels and initial NIHSS was observed in all subgroups: delayed onset subgroup (r=−0.38, 95% CI −0.44 to −0.31; I2 = 18%), early-onset subgroup (r=−0.44, 95% CI −0.54 to −0.34; I2 = 78%), and unspecified subgroup (r=−0.30, 95% CI −0.39 to −0.20; I2 = 1%).

Heterogeneity was substantially reduced in the delayed onset and unspecified subgroups, but remained high in the early onset subgroup. Visual inspection of the forest plot suggested that the study of Li et al.,[9] contributed disproportionately to heterogeneity in this subgroup. After excluding this study in a sensitivity analysis [Supplementary Figure 1], the early onset subgroup remained statistically significant (r=−0.39, 95% CI −0.45 to −0.33) with no residual heterogeneity (I2 = 0%).

The test for subgroup differences was not statistically significant (p = 0.12), indicating that stroke onset, or timing of the NIHSS assessment after the onset of stroke, did not reliably modify the strength of the association, although it appeared to contribute to heterogeneity.

Subgroup analysis by stroke geographic region

Subgroup analyses by geographic region were classified into East Asia vs. other regions, reflecting the predominance of studies conducted in East Asian countries. The stratification showed that the inverse correlation between vitamin D levels and NIHSS was consistent across regions [Figure 2b], both East Asia (r= −0.41, 95% CI −0.53 to −0.30; I2 = 84%), and other regions (r=−0.37, 95% CI −0.43 to −0.31; I2 = 12%). Although heterogeneity was high in East Asian studies, the test for subgroup differences was not statistically significant (p =0.52), indicating no evidence that geographic region modified the association between vitamin D levels and initial stroke severity. Removal of Li et al.,[9] reduced heterogeneity without changing the pooled estimate [Supplementary Figure 1].

Subgroup analysis by vitamin D assay method

When stratified by vitamin D assay method, all subgroups demonstrated an inverse correlation [Figure 2c]: Chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA)-based assays (r = −0.38, 95% CI −0.42 to −0.33; I2 = 10%), Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA)-based assays (r = −0.37, 95% CI −0.58 to −0.16; I2 = 85%), and unspecified assays (r = −0.42, 95% CI −0.57 to −0.27; I2 = 0%). The test for subgroup differences was not statistically significant (p = 0.86), suggesting that the assay method did not influence the pooled association. As in other subgroup analyses, exclusion of Li et al.,[9] substantially reduced heterogeneity in the ELISA-based assays subgroup without changing the direction or magnitude of the effect [Supplementary Figure 1].

Overall, this meta-analysis demonstrates a consistent, moderate inverse correlation between serum vitamin D levels and stroke severity at presentation. The association was robust across subgroups defined by stroke onset, geographic region, and assay method. However, the presence of residual heterogeneity, largely driven by a single influential study, indicated that the results should be interpreted with caution.

Funnel plot inspection did not reveal marked asymmetry, suggesting the absence of potential publication bias [Supplementary Figure 2]. Overall, these findings suggest that higher serum vitamin D concentrations are associated with less severe neurological deficit at admission, but between-study heterogeneity limits the certainty of this conclusion.

Association between serum vitamin D levels and functional outcomes

Six studies, including 538 participants, assessed the association between serum vitamin D levels and functional outcomes measured by mRS. All six studies reported an inverse association [Table 3 and Figure 3]. The random effects meta-analysis demonstrated a moderate inverse correlation between vitamin D levels and mRS scores (r= −0.43, 95% CI −0.60 to −0.27; I2 = 83%; p < 0.0001), indicating that lower vitamin D levels were associated with worse functional outcomes [Figure 3]. Between-study heterogeneity was substantial; therefore, pre-specified subgroup analyses were conducted.

Table 3: Table of correlation between Vitamin D and NIHSS, mRS, and infarct volume
S. No. References Correlation between vitamin D and NIHSS Logistic/linear regression between vitamin D and NIHSS Correlation between Vitamin D and mRS Correlation between Vitamin D and infarct volume
1. Kim et al., 2023[7] −0.402 OR: 6.02 (95% CI, 2.34–15.50) p<0.001 Discharge=−0.274 NR
2. Li et al., 2018[9] −0.601 OR: 0.886 (95% CI, 0.805–0.932) NR MRI with DWI r=−0.417; p<0.001
3. Bayat et al., 2023[10] −0.41 β=−0.381 (95% CI, −1.322–−0.415), p=0.000 NR NR
4. Wang et al., 2014[11] −0.389 NR NR MRI with DWI r=−0.355, p<0.0001
5. Kamal et al., 2023[12] −0.2459 NR Discharge=−0.6427 NR
6. Miao et al., 2021[13] NR β=−0.092 (95% CI, −0.029–−0.004), p=0.011 NR NR
7. Qiu et al., 2017[14] NR OR: 1.62 (95% CI, 1.20−1.89) p< 0.0001 NR NR
8. Masoud et al., 2023[15] −0.22 NR At 90 days=−0.48
9. Zhang et al., 2018[16] NR ≥75=1 50−75=1.11 (0.63−1.96) <50=1.21 (0.93−1.58) ≥50=1 <50=1.38 (0.91−2.07) p=0.070 NR NR
10. Flifel et al., 2020[24] −0.376 NR At admission=−0.232 NR
11. Tu et al., 2014[17] −0.363 NR NR NR
12. Safari et al., 2022[18] −0.306 NR NR MRI with DWI r=− 0.147, p=0.030
13. Markišic et al., 2017[19] −0.465 NR After 3 month=0.049 After 6 month=−0.231 ASPECT score r=0.221, p=0.149
14. Alharbi et al., 2022[20] NR β=−0.04, SE: 0.01, p=0.003 NR NR
15. Fahmy et al., 2019[5] −0.286 Insufficiencyβ=1.059, 95% CI=−1.035–8.036, SE: 0.532, p=0.043, OR:2.884
Deficiency β=2.623, 95% CI=−2.988– 63.553,SE: 0.780, p=0.001, OR: 13.780
After 3 month=−0.641 NR
16. Aggarwal et al. 2022[21] −0.457 NR NR NR
17. Wei et al., 2018[22] −0.305 NR NR MRI r=–0.179, p=0.012
18. Simon et al., 2024[23] −0.4081 β=-0.3994, p<0.001 NR NR

AIS: Acute ischemic stroke, NIHSS: National institutes of health stroke scale, mRS: Modified rankin scale, MRI: Magnetic resonance imaging, DWI: Diffusion weighted imaging, ASPECT: Alberta stroke program early computed tomography score, OR: Odds ratio, CI: Confidence interval, NR: Not reported, SE: Standard error

Forest plots of correlations between serum vitamin D levels and functional outcome measured by the modified Rankin Scale. (a) Subgrouped by stroke onset timing (delayed >24 h or mixed; unspecified). (b) Subgrouped by geographic region (East Asia vs. other regions). (c) Subgrouped by vitamin D assay method (Chemiluminescent immunoassay-based, Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based, and unspecified), CI: Confidence interval, COR: Correlation coefficient, CLIA: Chemiluminescent immunoassay, ELISA: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.
Figure 3: Forest plots of correlations between serum vitamin D levels and functional outcome measured by the modified Rankin Scale. (a) Subgrouped by stroke onset timing (delayed >24 h or mixed; unspecified). (b) Subgrouped by geographic region (East Asia vs. other regions). (c) Subgrouped by vitamin D assay method (Chemiluminescent immunoassay-based, Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based, and unspecified), CI: Confidence interval, COR: Correlation coefficient, CLIA: Chemiluminescent immunoassay, ELISA: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

Subgroup analysis by stroke onset

When stratified by stroke onset, the inverse association was observed in both available subgroups [Figure 3a]: delayed onset subgroup (r= −0.26, 95% CI −0.38 to −0.15; I2 = 0%) and unspecified subgroup (r= −0.53, 95% CI −0.68 to −0.38; I2 = 68%). The test for subgroup differences was statistically significant (p < 0.01), suggesting that stroke onset may modify the strength of the association. However, this result should be interpreted with caution because no study contributed to the early onset subgroup, and substantial heterogeneity remained in the unspecified subgroup.

Subgroup analysis by stroke geographic region

Only one study was conducted in East Asia, with the remaining studies classified as other regions [Figure 3b]. There was no statistically significant evidence of differences between subgroups (p = 0.06), and this stratification did not explain the observed heterogeneity. Therefore, there was insufficient evidence to determine whether the association differed by geographic region.

Subgroup analysis by vitamin D assay method

When stratified by vitamin D assay method, inverse correlations were observed in all subgroups [Figure 3c]: CLIA-based assays subgroup (r= −0.46, 95% CI −0.82 to −0.09; I2 = 93%), ELISA-based assays subgroup (r= −0.58, 95% CI −0.73 to −0.42; I2 = 49%), and unspecified subgroup (r= −0.24, 95% CI −0.41 to −0.06; I2 = 0%) [Figure 3c]. The test for subgroup differences was statistically significant (p = 0.02), indicating that assay methods may influence the estimated strength of the association. Heterogeneity remained very high in the CLIA subgroup, reflecting marked variability between the two contributing studies.

Overall, the pooled evidence suggests an association between lower vitamin D concentrations and worse post-stroke functional status, as measured by mRS. However, the substantial heterogeneity, limited number of studies, and instability of subgroup findings indicate that the results warrant cautious interpretation.

Association between serum vitamin D levels and infarct volume

Four studies, including 710 participants, examined the association between serum vitamin D levels and infarct volume measured by diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI). All four studies reported an inverse association. The random effects meta-analysis showed a statistically significant inverse correlation between serum vitamin D levels and infarct volume (r=−0.29, CI−0.41 to −0.16; I2 = 73%; p < 0.001), as shown in Figure 4. It indicates that lower vitamin D concentrations were associated with larger infarct volumes. Between-study heterogeneity was substantial, and subgroup analyses according to the pre-specified criteria were subsequently conducted.

Forest plots of correlations between serum vitamin D levels and infarct volume measured by diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. (a) Subgrouped by stroke onset timing (early <24 h vs. delayed >24 h or mixed). (b) Subgrouped by geographic region (East Asia vs. other regions). (c) Subgrouped by vitamin D assay method (Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based vs. Chemiluminescent immunoassay-based), CI: Confidence interval, COR: Correlation coefficient, CLIA: Chemiluminescent immunoassay, ELISA: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.
Figure 4: Forest plots of correlations between serum vitamin D levels and infarct volume measured by diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging. (a) Subgrouped by stroke onset timing (early <24 h vs. delayed >24 h or mixed). (b) Subgrouped by geographic region (East Asia vs. other regions). (c) Subgrouped by vitamin D assay method (Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-based vs. Chemiluminescent immunoassay-based), CI: Confidence interval, COR: Correlation coefficient, CLIA: Chemiluminescent immunoassay, ELISA: Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

Subgroup analysis by stroke onset

When stratified according to stroke onset, three studies contributed to the early onset subgroup (r = −0.32, 95% CI −0.46 to −0.17; I2 = 74%), while only one study contributed to the delayed onset subgroup (r = −0.18, 95% CI −0.34 to −0.02) [Figure 4a]. The test for subgroup differences was not statistically significant (p = 0.21), indicating no evidence that stroke onset timing modified the association. However, this finding should be interpreted with caution because the delayed-onset subgroup contained only a single study.

Subgroup analysis by geographic area

Three studies were conducted in East Asia, yielding a pooled correlation of r = −0.33 (95% CI −0.46 to−0.20; I2 = 67%), while one study was conducted in other regions (r = −0.15, 95% CI −0.31–0.01) [Figure 4b]. No significant subgroup effects were detected (p = 0.09), and the limited number of studies outside East Asia limits the ability to draw any firm conclusions about regional effects.

Subgroup analysis by vitamin D assay method

When stratified by vitamin D assay method, one study used an ELISA-based assay (r = −0.42, 95% CI −0.52–−0.31), and three studies used CLIA-based assays (r = −0.24 (95% CI −0.37–−0.10; I2 = 57%) [Figure 4c]. The test for subgroup differences was statistically significant (p = 0.03), suggesting that the assay method may influence the estimated strength of the association. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because the ELISA-based assay subgroup was represented by only one study.

Overall, this meta-analysis suggests that lower serum vitamin D levels are associated with larger cerebral infarct volumes on MRI. However, a small number of studies, substantial heterogeneity, and instability of subgroup analyses limit confidence in the precision of the effect estimates.

DISCUSSION

Our systematic review of 18 studies found a consistently inverse relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and the initial severity of AIS. In a pooled meta-analysis of 14 studies, the combined correlation coefficient was r=−0.39 (95% CI: −0.45 to −0.32; p < 0.0001), indicating that lower vitamin D level is significantly associated with more severe stroke at admission. This finding aligns with previous work: for example, Turetsky et al. [25] reported that each 10-ng/mL drop in 25-hydroxyvitamin D doubled the risk of a poor 90-day outcome and was associated with larger infarct volumes. Similarly, Kamal et al. [12] found that more severe vitamin D deficiency correlated with NIHSS scores and worse outcomes. These results suggest that vitamin D status may be an important predictor of initial stroke severity and short-term prognosis.

Multiple patient factors likely contribute to this association. Age is a major determinant; 13 out of 18 included studies enrolled older adults (> 60 years old), in whom vitamin D levels tend to be lower due to reduced cutaneous synthesis as well as renal activation, and stroke recovery is generally poorer.[26] Gender-related factors also contribute to vitamin D status, with postmenopausal women frequently exhibiting lower levels due to variations in cutaneous synthesis, body composition, and behavioral factors.[27] In this review, seven studies had more than 50% women, which could influence the overall vitamin D distribution. Notably, 12 of the included studies explicitly excluded participants on vitamin D supplements; this helps isolate endogenous vitamin D status but also means that vitamin D supplementation practices, either dietary or sunlight exposure, differed across populations.[27]

Medical comorbidities and lifestyle factors are important confounders. Conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and dyslipidemia both elevate stroke risk and often co-occur with low vitamin D. For instance, Jiang et al.[28] reported a Chinese cohort that lower 25(OH)D was associated with dyslipidemia, inversely correlated with LDL and triglycerides, and positively with HDL. Vitamin D deficiency itself can promote vascular risk factors through inflammation or endothelial dysfunction.[29,30] Lifestyle factors, such as poor diet, inactivity, smoking, and heavy alcohol use, further deplete vitamin D and worsen vascular health, potentially intensifying stroke severity.[31]

Geography and ethnicity also modulate vitamin D status. Darker skin pigmentation and cultural dress can reduce ultraviolet absorption, and regions at higher latitudes receive less ultraviolet-B radiation. Consistently, our review focuses on the Asian and African population, where vitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent. For example, Nimitphong and Holick[32] reported that over 70% of Indians, including children, pregnant women, and adults, are vitamin D deficient despite the abundant sun. A meta-analysis of 44,717 South East Asian adults showed that the overall prevalence of vitamin D deficiency was 68%, with a weighted mean level of vitamin D of 19.15 ng/mL.[33] Such an endemic deficiency in the study populations may partly explain why low vitamin D levels emerged as a marker of severe stroke. These regional differences underscore that our findings are most directly applicable to similar high-deficiency settings, and caution is needed in extrapolating to populations with different sun exposure or supplementation practices.

Beyond initial severity, vitamin D appears to be related to downstream outcomes. A subset of studies (6 studies) examined functional recovery by the mRS. Generally, higher vitamin D levels were linked to better mRS scores, indicating less disability. For instance, Kamal et al. [12] similarly reported that a more severe deficiency was associated with increased mortality and poor functional outcome. Differences in measurement timing (at admission, discharge, 3 months, 6 months) are likely to contribute to some variability, but overall, the trend is consistent that adequate vitamin D may support recovery. In practical terms, stroke with very low vitamin D tended to have higher rates of poor outcome (mRS >2) and mortality.[12,25]

Similarly, smaller infarct size has been observed with higher vitamin D. Several studies using MRI-DWI or CT-ASPECTS reported a weak but significant negative correlation between serum 25(OH)D and infarct volume.[25,28] In other words, patients with low vitamin D on admission often had larger areas of brain ischemia. Safari et al.[18] even found a positive correlation between 25(OH)D and ASPECTS score (higher ASPECTS indicating smaller infarcts).[18] These imaging findings reinforce that vitamin D deficiency may influence the biological extent of ischemic damage.

There are plausible biological mechanisms for these observations. Vitamin D plays multiple roles in vascular and neurological health. It improves endothelial function and arterial compliance, partly by upregulating endothelial nitric oxide synthase and reducing inflammation.[30,34]Al Mheid et al.,[34] showed that vitamin D insufficiency is associated with increased arterial stiffness and endothelial dysfunction.[34] Vitamin D also suppresses the renin– angiotensin system, which can lower blood pressure and reduce vascular resistance.[30,35] Through these pathways, adequate vitamin D may enhance collateral blood flow in the ischemic penumbra: Terpolilli et al.,[26] demonstrated that boosting nitric oxide (the same mediator enhanced by vitamin D) improves penumbral perfusion in stroke models.

Moreover, vitamin D has neuroprotective and anti-inflammatory effects. It is a neurosteroid involved in brain development and plasticity.[27] In experimental stroke, vitamin D has been linked to attenuating ischemia-induced blood–brain barrier disruption and reducing pro-inflammatory cytokine release.[27,31] Yin and Agrawal[29] noted that vitamin D regulates immune responses by inhibiting pro-inflammatory cell proliferation and cytokine production. Surdu et al.,[30] also reported that vitamin D deficiency accelerates atherosclerosis and is strongly associated with ischemic stroke and poorer post-stroke survival. In aggregate, these data support the notion that low vitamin D can exacerbate ischemic injury, via more inflammation, oxidative stress, vascular dysfunction, and blunt recovery, whereas normal levels exert vascular and neural stabilization.

The findings on severity complement prior meta-analyses of vitamin D and stroke risk. Zhou et al.,[36] found a higher risk of ischemic stroke among individuals with lower vitamin D concentrations, with a pooled relative risk of 1.62. Consistently, Sun et al.,[37] reported an ~1.5-fold increased stroke incidence or adverse outcomes in deficient patients, with similar estimates in analyses restricted to AIS. Our results extend this evidence that not only is low vitamin D a risk factor for having a stroke, it also predicts worse severity and outcome among those who suffer one. This reinforces the possibility that vitamin D status could be considered in stroke risk stratification and management.

We acknowledge several limitations. First, many included studies had relatively small sample sizes, limiting statistical power and precision of effect estimates. Second, there was moderate heterogeneity among studies, reflecting differences in study design, stroke assessment methods, and population characteristics. Third, all studies were conducted in Asia or Northern Africa, where vitamin D deficiency is common, so results may not generalize to other regions or ethnic groups. Finally, as an observational review, our findings are subject to unmeasured confounding, such as nutrition and unrecorded comorbidities, and cannot prove causality. Despite these limits, our synthesis suggests a robust association between vitamin D deficiency and stroke severity. Future research should aim to confirm these findings in larger, more diverse cohorts, clarify dose–response relationships, and test whether correcting vitamin D deficiency can improve stroke outcomes through randomized trials.

CONCLUSION

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, lower serum vitamin D levels were consistently associated with more severe AISs at presentation. Patients with vitamin D deficiency tended to have larger infarct volumes and worse functional outcomes. These results suggest that vitamin D status may be a valuable prognostic indicator in AIS. However, given the moderate heterogeneity and observational nature of the data, our conclusions should be interpreted with caution. Overall, the evidence supports a role for vitamin D in modulating stroke severity and recovery, but further well-designed studies are needed to establish causality and determine whether vitamin D supplementation can improve clinical outcomes in stroke patients.

Authors’ contributions:

RZA and AMU: Conceptualization, methodology, and data curation; RZA and PO: Formal analysis; MAR: Conceptualization and supervision. All the authors: methodology, Writing—reviewing and editing.

Ethical approval:

Institutional Review Board approval is not required.

Declaration of patient consent:

Patient’s consent is not required as there are no patients in this study.

Conflicts of interest:

There are no conflicts of interest.

Use of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted technology for manuscript preparation:

The authors confirm that there was no use of artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted technology for assisting in the writing or editing of the manuscript and no images were manipulated using AI.

Financial support and sponsorship: Nil.

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